THE CAUSES AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE 2025 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON INDONESIA
Keywords:
global financial crisis, Indonesia, economic impact, financial stability, economic resilienceAbstract
This paper meticulously analyzes the projected causes and economic impacts of the 2025 global financial crisis on Indonesia, aiming to provide deeper insight into global economic dynamics and guide Indonesia's preparedness to strengthen its economic resilience. The core problem addressed is the anticipated onset of a significant global financial crisis in 2025, driven by persistent market instability, escalating global debt, and heightened geopolitical tensions, and how these global triggers will specifically manifest and disproportionately affect Indonesia's diverse economic sectors and vulnerable social groups. The novelty of this research lies in its unique forward-looking, country-specific qualitative analysis tailored to a projected future event, integrating established theories of financial instability—such as Kindleberger's cyclical patterns and Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis—with an in-depth assessment of Indonesia's particular vulnerabilities and resilience mechanisms, a dimension not adequately explored for this specific future scenario in existing literature. The study employs a qualitative methodological approach, relying primarily on secondary data meticulously gathered from authoritative sources including international financial institutions, national central banks, government ministries, and peer-reviewed academic literature. The collected qualitative data are rigorously analyzed using content and thematic analysis, complemented by comparative and policy analysis to formulate strategic recommendations. The findings indicate that the 2025 crisis will likely stem from asset price bubbles, global debt accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties, rendering Indonesia susceptible despite demonstrating some macroeconomic resilience, particularly through capital flow reversals and reduced demand for its key exports. The crisis is projected to disproportionately affect the industrial sector, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), and informal workers, potentially leading to widespread business closures, job losses, and exacerbated social inequality, while straining the financial sector with liquidity crunches and testing fiscal resilience. In conclusion, the impending 2025 global financial crisis will have significant and multifaceted impacts on Indonesia, underscoring the imperative for proactive and innovative policy formulation, encompassing strengthened social safety nets, economic diversification, and robust international cooperation, to enhance Indonesia's long-term economic resilience and mitigate severe social and macroeconomic consequences.References
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